Caskets On Parade
What's a Mortfolio
a (not-so) Frequently Asked Question
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So, you've seen or heard the word Mortfolio
used here in this website or in another document and were wondering 'just what
is a mortfolio?' Many times it is used as to describe the entry list that is submitted to a Dead Pool contest. However, the broader meaning of mortfolio is the list or database containing all of the potential submission names to a Dead Pool contest, along with the individual ratings assigned to those names. The most avid Dead Poolers will participate in a number of contests in a given year. Each contest that they enter will have rule variations that must be taken into account: how many names may be submitted; what categories of individuals may not be on those entry lists; what constitutes "fame" (at least, enough to make the named individual scorable); etc. The mortfolio is the root (or master) list/database from which a Dead Pool entrant will draw their final contest submission list(s). The largest submission list we have ever heard of - 100 names - could be drawn from a list/database of only 100 names. However, given the fluid nature of the subject matter (people dropping dead), even a mediocrely researched list will contain one or more individuals that have, or are just about to, kick off. If the contestant enters games that have a shorter run span, or games that have start dates off of the standard calendar cycle (January 1 thru December 31), one or more names over the maximum submission list size will need to be carried on the list just to cover the constant "shrinkage" of the pool of names. And, as long as the list keeper is going to keep the list overstocked, they might as well keep it really overstocked. Say, 2, 3, 10, 100 times the size of the largest submission list. Research and list maintenance become an ongoing, year-round affair. Also, the research is being done to not only add names to replentish the deceased but also to re-evaluate the "viability" of the living individuals already on the list — They were fighting cancer last year ... are they still fighting cancer this year? Are they in remission? Are there new complications? Are they now living in a hospice? Did they just move to Baghdad? Did they just move out of Baghdad? Common considerations that may be employed when evaluating the life prospects of an individual include: their age, their health history; their occupation; their lifestyle; their family health history; and on and on. We know of a number of regular Dead Pool participants with complex mortfolios (databases) containing thousands of names, each evaluated on perhaps a dozen different criteria that would affect their potential mortality; those valuations then being "crunched" by a top secret formula to produce a unique numeric value or alpahnumeric code that represents the named individual's likelyhood of of going "toes up" in the near future. The entire database may then be ordered into a list of the most to least likely to soon die. It is this investment portfolio-like analysis that probably led to the coining of the term mortfolio (we believe by Laura Pedersen-Pietersen in a June 1998 article in the New York Times Money & Business section). In real investmment portfolios the experts are constantly advising people to have a mixed baskets of investment products — the savy investor never has more than a moderate percentage of their total investment portfolio in a give type of item. Cash, Real estate, bonds, stocks, precious metals, mutual funds, MI deposit containers, lottery tickets, International Postal Union Reply Coupons ... if any one category of investment goes way down in valuation the entire portfolio isn't hosed (especially if another category has a corresponding rise in valuation). The balanced portfolio (mutiple eggs kept in multiple baskets) is the prudent way to go. Likewise, a properly balance mortfolio does not rely too heavily upon a single category of potential stiff. The practical meaning for a serious dead pooler is that they will need to do a second level of evaluation on their initial list of possible future dead people. Say you get to submit a list of 35 names & your database has sorted 40 death row inmates to the top of your database list. Assuming that the contest that you'll be entering permits the submission of DRIs (Caskets On Parade is one of the few contests that do permit it), you still have a host of external factors that may abruptly alter the potential mortality of your 35 knuckle-dragging ax murderers. Commutations, exonerations, appeals, stays & the ever popular Supreme Court rewrites of what is (or is not) a constitutional way to wack someone may leave you with a list of 35 relatively healthy people that won't be visited by the Grim Reaper anytime soon. Likewise, a list composed entirely of wheezing 110+ year old biddies will not pay off like you thought that it should — remember, they made it to age 110 for a reason (good genetics, good healthcare, good food, living outside war zones, ...). Even a list combining all of the "best" DRIs & biddies won't necessarily win you a Dead Pool contest (old biddies, like death row inmates, are often barred or severely discounted during the scoring process). So, a broad spectrum of potential stiffs is preferable to a single category; each category being weighted by some percentage of the total submission list (the weighting being another one of those super-secret valuations that would be honed and adjusted over time). Over the last thirty years entrants into the Caskets On Parade contest have revealed a number of categories that they consistently select their Grim Reaper Victims from. Some of those categories (and representative names) include: And the category lists go on and on, into the dozens. And, most categories may be broken down into several sub-categories. Beyond a certain point you may have too many categories of individuals that you are attempting to research. Do yourself a favor & limit yourself to a half-dozen or so categories that you might have some affinity for plus a seventh "miscellanous catch-all" for others that you come across randomly & would like to continue tracking. You will note that the above list does not contain the category "Sure Things". The individuals that would fall in that category have a remarkable capacity to rise above the calamity that is supposed to extinguish them; José Napoleón Duarte was given less than six months to live in June of 1988 (much to the delight of the single entrant that had picked him for that year). He lasted another 22 months, until February of 1990, much to the consternation of his much-lengthier 1989 contest selector list (two entrants kept the vigil up for the 1990 contest and scored the points). Karen Anne Quinlan's body kept going for years after her brain had died (as did Terri Schiavo's). More recently, those 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009 contest entrants who thought that they saw buzzards circling Ariel Sharon's bloated carcas may wind up waiting years for Death to finally cash out his chips.
We know it sounds like an awfully lot of work
to do, and, IT IS. However, if you are a serious dead pooler (especially one
that has entered one of the commercial games on the internet) the payoff will
be your "solid contender" (and often winner) status. As the
Klingons like to
say, "today is a good day to die." The accomplished mortfolio manager
will have a pretty good idea who that will be!
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